Live forecast

KickCast vs the 2026 World Cup.

KickCast committed a per-match home/draw/away forecast for all 72 group-stage games on 2026-04-20, weeks before the tournament kicked off on 2026-06-11. This page scores that standing forecast against real results as they land, with proper scoring rules, including the matchdays the model gets wrong. Early on the sample is small, so the aggregates are noisy and will settle as more games finish.

The forecast is the committed run (Spain 16.51% favorite), distinct from the dashboard's KickCastNet v3 run (20.52%). Pipeline and code: github.com/karimsemaan/kickcast-worldcup.

Matches scored: 72 / 72group stage
Log-loss: 0.850beats 1.099 uniform
Brier: 0.507lower is better
Top pick: 65%ahead of 47% always-home

Scored so far (72)

Date	Match	Forecast H / D / A	Result	Log-loss
Jun 27	Jordan v ArgentinaJ	5 / 23 / 72	1-3away win	0.325 beats uniform baseline
Jun 27	Algeria v AustriaJ	18 / 35 / 47	3-3draw	1.056 beats uniform baselinecalibrated call
Jun 27	DR Congo v UzbekistanK	32 / 32 / 36	3-1home win	1.151 above uniform baseline
Jun 27	Colombia v PortugalK	36 / 36 / 28	0-0draw	1.023 beats uniform baseline
Jun 27	Croatia v GhanaL	72 / 19 / 9	2-1home win	0.335 beats uniform baseline
Jun 27	Panama v EnglandL	7 / 30 / 63	0-2away win	0.458 beats uniform baseline
Jun 26	New Zealand v BelgiumG	6 / 25 / 69	1-5away win	0.376 beats uniform baseline
Jun 26	Egypt v IranG	24 / 36 / 40	1-1draw	1.019 beats uniform baselinecalibrated call
Jun 26	Uruguay v SpainH	10 / 34 / 56	0-1away win	0.585 beats uniform baseline
Jun 26	Cape Verde v Saudi ArabiaH	22 / 33 / 45	0-0draw	1.098 beats uniform baselinecalibrated call
Jun 26	Senegal v IraqI	65 / 24 / 10	5-0home win	0.424 beats uniform baseline
Jun 26	Norway v FranceI	15 / 39 / 46	1-4away win	0.778 beats uniform baseline
Jun 25	Paraguay v AustraliaD	34 / 37 / 30	0-0draw	1.004 beats uniform baseline
Jun 25	Turkiye v United StatesD	27 / 34 / 40	3-2home win	1.323 above uniform baseline
Jun 25	Tunisia v NetherlandsF	6 / 29 / 65	1-3away win	0.438 beats uniform baseline
Jun 25	Japan v SwedenF	46 / 35 / 19	1-1draw	1.045 beats uniform baselinecalibrated call
Jun 25	Curacao v Ivory CoastE	10 / 32 / 58	0-2away win	0.541 beats uniform baseline
Jun 25	Ecuador v GermanyE	17 / 36 / 46	2-1home win	1.748 above uniform baseline
Jun 24	South Africa v South KoreaA	9 / 29 / 61	1-0home win	2.355 above uniform baseline
Jun 24	Czechia v MexicoA	21 / 33 / 46	0-3away win	0.771 beats uniform baseline
Jun 24	Morocco v HaitiC	68 / 22 / 9	4-2home win	0.382 beats uniform baseline
Jun 24	Scotland v BrazilC	7 / 29 / 64	0-3away win	0.446 beats uniform baseline
Jun 24	Bosnia and Herzegovina v QatarB	39 / 33 / 28	3-1home win	0.946 beats uniform baseline
Jun 24	Switzerland v CanadaB	43 / 33 / 24	2-1home win	0.841 beats uniform baseline
Jun 23	Colombia v DR CongoK	75 / 17 / 8	1-0home win	0.287 beats uniform baseline
Jun 23	Panama v CroatiaL	10 / 31 / 60	0-1away win	0.516 beats uniform baseline
Jun 23	England v GhanaL	73 / 19 / 8	0-0draw	1.665 above uniform baseline
Jun 23	Portugal v UzbekistanK	60 / 28 / 12	5-0home win	0.513 beats uniform baseline
Jun 22	Jordan v AlgeriaJ	14 / 36 / 50	1-2away win	0.693 beats uniform baseline
Jun 22	Norway v SenegalI	46 / 34 / 20	3-2home win	0.767 beats uniform baseline
Jun 22	France v IraqI	78 / 16 / 6	3-0home win	0.251 beats uniform baseline
Jun 22	Argentina v AustriaJ	63 / 27 / 11	2-0home win	0.467 beats uniform baseline
Jun 21	New Zealand v EgyptG	21 / 34 / 45	1-3away win	0.799 beats uniform baseline
Jun 21	Uruguay v Cape VerdeH	75 / 17 / 8	2-2draw	1.744 above uniform baseline
Jun 21	Belgium v IranG	56 / 30 / 13	0-0draw	1.201 above uniform baseline
Jun 21	Spain v Saudi ArabiaH	86 / 10 / 3	4-0home win	0.148 beats uniform baseline
Jun 21	Tunisia v JapanF	9 / 31 / 60	0-4away win	0.504 beats uniform baseline
Jun 20	Ecuador v CuracaoE	75 / 17 / 8	0-0draw	1.755 above uniform baseline
Jun 20	Germany v Ivory CoastE	63 / 26 / 12	2-1home win	0.467 beats uniform baseline
Jun 20	Netherlands v SwedenF	60 / 29 / 11	5-1home win	0.513 beats uniform baseline
Jun 20	Turkiye v ParaguayD	28 / 30 / 42	0-1away win	0.877 beats uniform baseline
Jun 19	Brazil v HaitiC	82 / 14 / 4	3-0home win	0.199 beats uniform baseline
Jun 19	Scotland v MoroccoC	18 / 36 / 45	0-1away win	0.790 beats uniform baseline
Jun 19	United States v AustraliaD	41 / 36 / 24	2-0home win	0.893 beats uniform baseline
Jun 18	Mexico v South KoreaA	39 / 35 / 26	1-0home win	0.932 beats uniform baseline
Jun 18	Canada v QatarB	76 / 17 / 7	6-0home win	0.274 beats uniform baseline
Jun 18	Switzerland v Bosnia and HerzegovinaB	65 / 25 / 10	4-1home win	0.428 beats uniform baseline
Jun 18	Czechia v South AfricaA	50 / 34 / 17	1-1draw	1.093 beats uniform baselinecalibrated call
Jun 17	Uzbekistan v ColombiaK	7 / 27 / 66	1-3away win	0.423 beats uniform baseline
Jun 17	Ghana v PanamaL	30 / 34 / 36	1-0home win	1.200 above uniform baseline
Jun 17	England v CroatiaL	46 / 36 / 17	4-2home win	0.770 beats uniform baseline
Jun 17	Portugal v DR CongoK	67 / 23 / 10	1-1draw	1.459 above uniform baseline
Jun 17	Austria v JordanJ	56 / 30 / 14	3-1home win	0.571 beats uniform baseline
Jun 16	Argentina v AlgeriaJ	71 / 21 / 7	3-0home win	0.337 beats uniform baseline
Jun 16	Iraq v NorwayI	6 / 24 / 70	1-4away win	0.360 beats uniform baseline
Jun 16	France v SenegalI	54 / 31 / 15	3-1home win	0.613 beats uniform baseline
Jun 16	Iran v New ZealandG	40 / 35 / 25	2-2draw	1.043 beats uniform baselinecalibrated call
Jun 15	Saudi Arabia v UruguayH	10 / 31 / 59	1-1draw	1.160 above uniform baseline
Jun 15	Belgium v EgyptG	60 / 28 / 12	1-1draw	1.258 above uniform baseline
Jun 15	Spain v Cape VerdeH	89 / 8 / 3	0-0draw	2.517 above uniform baseline
Jun 14	Sweden v TunisiaF	42 / 35 / 23	5-1home win	0.872 beats uniform baseline
Jun 14	Ivory Coast v EcuadorE	22 / 30 / 48	1-0home win	1.529 above uniform baseline
Jun 14	Netherlands v JapanF	37 / 36 / 27	2-2draw	1.025 beats uniform baselinecalibrated call
Jun 14	Germany v CuracaoE	78 / 16 / 6	7-1home win	0.250 beats uniform baseline
Jun 14	Australia v TurkiyeD	36 / 32 / 32	2-0home win	1.014 beats uniform baseline
Jun 13	Haiti v ScotlandC	11 / 31 / 58	0-1away win	0.543 beats uniform baseline
Jun 13	Brazil v MoroccoC	55 / 32 / 14	1-1draw	1.154 above uniform baseline
Jun 13	Qatar v SwitzerlandB	15 / 30 / 55	1-1draw	1.217 above uniform baseline
Jun 12	United States v ParaguayD	39 / 36 / 25	4-1home win	0.936 beats uniform baseline
Jun 12	Canada v Bosnia and HerzegovinaB	58 / 28 / 15	1-1draw	1.278 above uniform baseline
Jun 11	South Korea v CzechiaA	37 / 37 / 27	2-1home win	1.005 beats uniform baselinecalibrated call
Jun 11	Mexico v South AfricaA	66 / 25 / 9	2-0home win	0.414 beats uniform baseline

KickCast vs the 2026 World Cup.

The forecast is the committed run (Spain 16.51% favorite), distinct from the dashboard's KickCastNet v3 run (20.52%). Pipeline and code: github.com/karimsemaan/kickcast-worldcup.

Scored so far (72)

Date	Match	Forecast H / D / A	Result	Log-loss
Jun 27	Jordan v ArgentinaJ	5 / 23 / 72	1-3away win	0.325 beats uniform baseline
Jun 27	Algeria v AustriaJ	18 / 35 / 47	3-3draw	1.056 beats uniform baselinecalibrated call
Jun 27	DR Congo v UzbekistanK	32 / 32 / 36	3-1home win	1.151 above uniform baseline
Jun 27	Colombia v PortugalK	36 / 36 / 28	0-0draw	1.023 beats uniform baseline
Jun 27	Croatia v GhanaL	72 / 19 / 9	2-1home win	0.335 beats uniform baseline
Jun 27	Panama v EnglandL	7 / 30 / 63	0-2away win	0.458 beats uniform baseline
Jun 26	New Zealand v BelgiumG	6 / 25 / 69	1-5away win	0.376 beats uniform baseline
Jun 26	Egypt v IranG	24 / 36 / 40	1-1draw	1.019 beats uniform baselinecalibrated call
Jun 26	Uruguay v SpainH	10 / 34 / 56	0-1away win	0.585 beats uniform baseline
Jun 26	Cape Verde v Saudi ArabiaH	22 / 33 / 45	0-0draw	1.098 beats uniform baselinecalibrated call
Jun 26	Senegal v IraqI	65 / 24 / 10	5-0home win	0.424 beats uniform baseline
Jun 26	Norway v FranceI	15 / 39 / 46	1-4away win	0.778 beats uniform baseline
Jun 25	Paraguay v AustraliaD	34 / 37 / 30	0-0draw	1.004 beats uniform baseline
Jun 25	Turkiye v United StatesD	27 / 34 / 40	3-2home win	1.323 above uniform baseline
Jun 25	Tunisia v NetherlandsF	6 / 29 / 65	1-3away win	0.438 beats uniform baseline
Jun 25	Japan v SwedenF	46 / 35 / 19	1-1draw	1.045 beats uniform baselinecalibrated call
Jun 25	Curacao v Ivory CoastE	10 / 32 / 58	0-2away win	0.541 beats uniform baseline
Jun 25	Ecuador v GermanyE	17 / 36 / 46	2-1home win	1.748 above uniform baseline
Jun 24	South Africa v South KoreaA	9 / 29 / 61	1-0home win	2.355 above uniform baseline
Jun 24	Czechia v MexicoA	21 / 33 / 46	0-3away win	0.771 beats uniform baseline
Jun 24	Morocco v HaitiC	68 / 22 / 9	4-2home win	0.382 beats uniform baseline
Jun 24	Scotland v BrazilC	7 / 29 / 64	0-3away win	0.446 beats uniform baseline
Jun 24	Bosnia and Herzegovina v QatarB	39 / 33 / 28	3-1home win	0.946 beats uniform baseline
Jun 24	Switzerland v CanadaB	43 / 33 / 24	2-1home win	0.841 beats uniform baseline
Jun 23	Colombia v DR CongoK	75 / 17 / 8	1-0home win	0.287 beats uniform baseline
Jun 23	Panama v CroatiaL	10 / 31 / 60	0-1away win	0.516 beats uniform baseline
Jun 23	England v GhanaL	73 / 19 / 8	0-0draw	1.665 above uniform baseline
Jun 23	Portugal v UzbekistanK	60 / 28 / 12	5-0home win	0.513 beats uniform baseline
Jun 22	Jordan v AlgeriaJ	14 / 36 / 50	1-2away win	0.693 beats uniform baseline
Jun 22	Norway v SenegalI	46 / 34 / 20	3-2home win	0.767 beats uniform baseline
Jun 22	France v IraqI	78 / 16 / 6	3-0home win	0.251 beats uniform baseline
Jun 22	Argentina v AustriaJ	63 / 27 / 11	2-0home win	0.467 beats uniform baseline
Jun 21	New Zealand v EgyptG	21 / 34 / 45	1-3away win	0.799 beats uniform baseline
Jun 21	Uruguay v Cape VerdeH	75 / 17 / 8	2-2draw	1.744 above uniform baseline
Jun 21	Belgium v IranG	56 / 30 / 13	0-0draw	1.201 above uniform baseline
Jun 21	Spain v Saudi ArabiaH	86 / 10 / 3	4-0home win	0.148 beats uniform baseline
Jun 21	Tunisia v JapanF	9 / 31 / 60	0-4away win	0.504 beats uniform baseline
Jun 20	Ecuador v CuracaoE	75 / 17 / 8	0-0draw	1.755 above uniform baseline
Jun 20	Germany v Ivory CoastE	63 / 26 / 12	2-1home win	0.467 beats uniform baseline
Jun 20	Netherlands v SwedenF	60 / 29 / 11	5-1home win	0.513 beats uniform baseline
Jun 20	Turkiye v ParaguayD	28 / 30 / 42	0-1away win	0.877 beats uniform baseline
Jun 19	Brazil v HaitiC	82 / 14 / 4	3-0home win	0.199 beats uniform baseline
Jun 19	Scotland v MoroccoC	18 / 36 / 45	0-1away win	0.790 beats uniform baseline
Jun 19	United States v AustraliaD	41 / 36 / 24	2-0home win	0.893 beats uniform baseline
Jun 18	Mexico v South KoreaA	39 / 35 / 26	1-0home win	0.932 beats uniform baseline
Jun 18	Canada v QatarB	76 / 17 / 7	6-0home win	0.274 beats uniform baseline
Jun 18	Switzerland v Bosnia and HerzegovinaB	65 / 25 / 10	4-1home win	0.428 beats uniform baseline
Jun 18	Czechia v South AfricaA	50 / 34 / 17	1-1draw	1.093 beats uniform baselinecalibrated call
Jun 17	Uzbekistan v ColombiaK	7 / 27 / 66	1-3away win	0.423 beats uniform baseline
Jun 17	Ghana v PanamaL	30 / 34 / 36	1-0home win	1.200 above uniform baseline
Jun 17	England v CroatiaL	46 / 36 / 17	4-2home win	0.770 beats uniform baseline
Jun 17	Portugal v DR CongoK	67 / 23 / 10	1-1draw	1.459 above uniform baseline
Jun 17	Austria v JordanJ	56 / 30 / 14	3-1home win	0.571 beats uniform baseline
Jun 16	Argentina v AlgeriaJ	71 / 21 / 7	3-0home win	0.337 beats uniform baseline
Jun 16	Iraq v NorwayI	6 / 24 / 70	1-4away win	0.360 beats uniform baseline
Jun 16	France v SenegalI	54 / 31 / 15	3-1home win	0.613 beats uniform baseline
Jun 16	Iran v New ZealandG	40 / 35 / 25	2-2draw	1.043 beats uniform baselinecalibrated call
Jun 15	Saudi Arabia v UruguayH	10 / 31 / 59	1-1draw	1.160 above uniform baseline
Jun 15	Belgium v EgyptG	60 / 28 / 12	1-1draw	1.258 above uniform baseline
Jun 15	Spain v Cape VerdeH	89 / 8 / 3	0-0draw	2.517 above uniform baseline
Jun 14	Sweden v TunisiaF	42 / 35 / 23	5-1home win	0.872 beats uniform baseline
Jun 14	Ivory Coast v EcuadorE	22 / 30 / 48	1-0home win	1.529 above uniform baseline
Jun 14	Netherlands v JapanF	37 / 36 / 27	2-2draw	1.025 beats uniform baselinecalibrated call
Jun 14	Germany v CuracaoE	78 / 16 / 6	7-1home win	0.250 beats uniform baseline
Jun 14	Australia v TurkiyeD	36 / 32 / 32	2-0home win	1.014 beats uniform baseline
Jun 13	Haiti v ScotlandC	11 / 31 / 58	0-1away win	0.543 beats uniform baseline
Jun 13	Brazil v MoroccoC	55 / 32 / 14	1-1draw	1.154 above uniform baseline
Jun 13	Qatar v SwitzerlandB	15 / 30 / 55	1-1draw	1.217 above uniform baseline
Jun 12	United States v ParaguayD	39 / 36 / 25	4-1home win	0.936 beats uniform baseline
Jun 12	Canada v Bosnia and HerzegovinaB	58 / 28 / 15	1-1draw	1.278 above uniform baseline
Jun 11	South Korea v CzechiaA	37 / 37 / 27	2-1home win	1.005 beats uniform baselinecalibrated call
Jun 11	Mexico v South AfricaA	66 / 25 / 9	2-0home win	0.414 beats uniform baseline

Scoreboard

Scored so far (72)

Scoreboard

Scored so far (72)